Certificate 010

Chapter Ten: The Promised Land That Wasn't — Gas, Groceries, and Empty Vows

These are the sources the Kool-Aid Laboratory used to examine this chapter. Every one is public. Check them yourself.

Want the plain-English verdict and the full laboratory report for this chapter? Those are in Who's Drinking the Kool-Aid? — The Official Research Companion. Get the Companion →

#1 Primary record

Federal Reserve Bank of New York — "Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?" (Liberty Street Economics, February 2026).

Found that nearly 90% of the 2025 tariff burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers (pass-through of about 94% early in 2025, easing to about 86% by November), and that the average U.S. tariff rate rose from roughly 2.6% to about 13% over 2025.

#2 Reporting

Donald J. Trump — the affordability promises.

At the Economic Club of New York (September 2024): "My plan will cut energy prices in half or more than that within 12 months… gasoline below $2 a gallon." At the Detroit Economic Club (October 10, 2024): "12 months from January 20th… your gasoline for your car is going to be 50% cheaper." PolitiFact (MAGA-Meter, $2 gasoline promise): FactCheck.org (Trump energy-price proposal):

#3 Primary record

U.S. Energy Information Administration — Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (national average).

No week fell below a $2 national average after January 20, 2025 (the lowest was about $2.78 in January 2025).

#4 Primary record

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index (all items; gasoline; food at home; household energy),

for the retail-price and inflation context.

#5 Primary record

2025 U.S. tariff actions

— presidential proclamations, executive orders, USITC Harmonized Tariff Schedule modifications, USTR announcements, and Federal Register notices affecting China, Canada, Mexico, and other partners, with exemptions, pauses, and replacement measures. USTR: USITC Harmonized Tariff Schedule:

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