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Chapter Fifteen: Cutting the Net — Medicaid, SNAP, and the Budget That Doesn't Add Up

These are the sources the Kool-Aid Laboratory used to examine this chapter. Every one is public. Check them yourself.

Want the plain-English verdict and the full laboratory report for this chapter? Those are in Who's Drinking the Kool-Aid? — The Official Research Companion. Get the Companion →

#2 Primary record

CBO, "Estimated Budgetary Effects of Public Law 119-21 … Relative to CBO's January 2025 Baseline" (pub. 61570).

Over 2025–2034: revenues −$4.5 trillion; direct spending −$1.1 trillion; net deficit +$3.4 trillion (conventional score).

#3 Primary record

CBO — enacted-law health-coverage estimate for P.L. 119-21:

roughly 10 million more uninsured over the decade (≈10.9 million including related ACA-subsidy expiration).

#5 Primary record

P.L. 119-21 Medicaid community-engagement provisions

— expansion adults 19–64, 80 hours/month of qualifying activity, exemptions, phase-in generally beginning 2027 with state-delay authority; and prior state work-reporting evaluations (e.g., Arkansas) documenting coverage losses among eligible people.

#6 Primary record

USDA FNS — national SNAP participation

(most recent reporting year): more than 40 million/month; and "Characteristics of SNAP Households: FY2023" — 79% of households include a child, elderly, or nonelderly disabled person; those households hold 88% of participants.

#8 Primary record

JCT / Internal Revenue Code

— permanence of the 2017 individual rates (37% top rate retained rather than reverting to 39.6%); and CBO distributional analysis of P.L. 119-21 — change in household resources after federal taxes and transfers, lowest decile losing and upper deciles gaining.